October 3, 2020 October always ushers in delightfully cooler temps, pumpkin spice everything and wacky wonky price action. I sure like the cooler weather. Broader Market Review President Trump's Covid diagnosis sent the Dow down about 900 points overnight from Thursday's high and rallied back during regular hours on Friday to gain most of it back. The major averages have all rallied back over the past week to recapture 50% of the projected September decline that began on September 3rd. … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 26, 2020 Broader Market Review The major averages continue to follow our projections down from the reversal high we forecast for early September. The drawdown has been orderly with large down days balanced by strong recovery reversals resulting in a flatter trajectory lower than the Corona Crash was. While we do expect volatility to increase into the election, current data suggests a worst case depth would be around 23,000 on the Dow and 8,600 on … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 19, 2020 I have heard from so many of you who made a pile of money on the DraftKing (DKNG) trade. Well done! I sold 1/2 my position for a 60% gain on Friday. I will, of course, advise when I exit the remainder. Big congrats and if you took profits along the way that's awesome..KaChing is always good. Trading/owning well known companies with a guidance system beats the crap out of betting on a sports team..haha. DKNG Get prepared. It looks like we will be getting a … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 12, 2011 Some thoughts.. If it wasn't for the fact that markets sometimes collapse and we can often measure when and where I wouldn't have much to do except for the other stuff I do. Price history is the only thing we know for a fact to be true. The rest is just noise with little correlation to price. That's why it's so difficult for people to outperform the market. The absolute best we have in forecasting future price action is to understand and identify the … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 5, 2020 Broader Market Review Friday was day two of the broader market reversal lower we have been expecting and the next week or two could define direction for the next couple of months. As you know I have been trimming positions, raising cash and reducing risk for the past month in anticipation of a likely secondary collapse into the election. The current reversal, which might be the start of the move down, began on Thursday, almost exactly when and where I had … [Read more...]

Saturday, August 29, 2020 There sure are lots of takeaways and lessons learned this year but one of the standouts for me is how weak and ineffective many of our institutions can be in serving those that support them. From government "leaders" failing to uphold their mandates of law and order to private companies cowering to mob demands spotlighting how many of our public and private institutions are more interested in protecting themselves than properly serving the people they are designed to … [Read more...]

Saturday, August 15, 2020 I generally don't get into the weeds of portfolio balancing or position size as I think that's more personal preference but here's what I do in my account. The foundation of my research, methodology and practice is built on managing my risk. Regarding position size, I generally start a new position with about 3% of my equity portfolio. So, with a $1,000,000 account I would buy shares of Apple, for instance, that would equal $30,000. With more speculative trades I … [Read more...]