Since my last SPY buy signal on July 2nd the S&P 500 index ETF has had 8 out of 9 up weeks and is higher by 7.5%. Price has cleared and closed above the previous all time high from January this year. Nasdaq, small caps and mid caps are all making new highs. Bonds have been range bound and sideways for most of the year which is a net positive for stocks. Most industry sectors are charging higher. Gold sucks. All is well…right?
SPDR’s S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) weekly
It sure appears that way. What’s not to like?
Not much.
Maybe that’s why I’m a little nervous. But, my nerves have nothing to do with market action. I keep telling myself this over and over and over… You can’t call a market top before it happens, it’s impossible. Some people think they can do it but they are wrong, wrong, wrong. I accept being nervous. Stay long SPY and other related domestic indexes.
Looking around the globe, the UK, EU, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada and emerging markets are all under performing the good ole USA so far this year. This is also true from the bottom in 2009 however. There was a brief period from early 2017 until the beginning of this year that India, South Korea, Germany, Japan and Hong Kong all out performed the US but since the market correction in February the US is leading the way again.
SPDR’s S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) weekly comparison chart
So, what’s not to like? Well, the following industry sectors are not performing well:
Banks-Global
Auto Manufacturers
Banks-Regional-Latin America
Beverages-Brewers
Airlines-bag fees suck
Pharmaceutical Retailers
Tobacco
Residential Construction
Medical Distribution
Farm & Construction Equipment
Confectioners-I like nuts and chews
Banks-Regional-Europe
Banks-Regional-Asia
Advertising Agencies
Gambling
Aluminum
Long-Term Care Facilities
But, look at all the industry sectors that are performing well:
Biotechnology
Semiconductors
Specialty Retail
Information Technology
Internet Content & Information
Software-Infrastructure…ripping higher
Software-Application…ripping higher
Oil & Gas Integrated
Communication Equipment
Banks-Regional-US
Apparel Stores-I recently discovered Steinmart…$29 golf shirts
Medical Devices
Consumer Electronics
Drug Manufacturers-Major
Business Services
Media-Diversified
Credit Services
Diagnostics & Research
Broadcasting-Radio
Department Stores-recent uptrend
Apparel Manufacturing
Health Care Plans
Medical Care
Footware and Accessories-Wow…who’s buying all the new shoes?
Utilities-Independent Power Producers
Railroads-got to love it
Insurance-Property and Casualty
Computer Systems
Agricultural Inputs
Luxury Goods
Health Information Services
Industrial Distribution
Waste Management
Paper & Paper Products
Staffing & Outsourcing Services
There are a lot more sectors performing well than not.
So, What’s not to like? Not much really.
I still don’t like that the S&P 500 Index is so far above its mean. But, most everything else looks great. Well, except for the rest of the world. Everything isn’t just perfect after all. There are a few things not to like. That makes me feel a little better.
So hold my recommendations if you own them.
As always, if you have any stocks, ETF’s, sectors or country’s that you would like me to look at just let me know.
Fall is in the air…I love it.
Don