Sunday, October 18, 2020 Broader Market Review The major averages continue to trend higher. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are holding support and the continuation higher is expected as long as we maintain the current trajectory. I continue to be very cautious considering the averages are nearing a re-test of the previous high and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. My current exposure is 65% equities and 35% cash. I will likely begin hedging soon by buying SQQQ which … [Read more...]

Saturday, October 10, 2020 Broader Market Review The major averages had a pretty strong week, crossing over the 50% line (white line) of the September decline. This usually means we are likely to test the previous high. We have plenty of time to do this before the election so it could be an opportunity to lighten up, if you haven't already done so, before the election. While the underlying catalyst for price direction is the historical and unique pattern embedded in every instrument, c … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 26, 2020 Broader Market Review The major averages continue to follow our projections down from the reversal high we forecast for early September. The drawdown has been orderly with large down days balanced by strong recovery reversals resulting in a flatter trajectory lower than the Corona Crash was. While we do expect volatility to increase into the election, current data suggests a worst case depth would be around 23,000 on the Dow and 8,600 on … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 12, 2011 Some thoughts.. If it wasn't for the fact that markets sometimes collapse and we can often measure when and where I wouldn't have much to do except for the other stuff I do. Price history is the only thing we know for a fact to be true. The rest is just noise with little correlation to price. That's why it's so difficult for people to outperform the market. The absolute best we have in forecasting future price action is to understand and identify the … [Read more...]

Saturday, September 5, 2020 Broader Market Review Friday was day two of the broader market reversal lower we have been expecting and the next week or two could define direction for the next couple of months. As you know I have been trimming positions, raising cash and reducing risk for the past month in anticipation of a likely secondary collapse into the election. The current reversal, which might be the start of the move down, began on Thursday, almost exactly when and where I had … [Read more...]