Smart Chart Investor

Beyond Buy and Hold: Using Technical Analysis to Reduce the Risk of Long-term Investing

Market and Sector Review

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S&P 500 Index (SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) SPY bounced last week off rising support established by the range lows of early this year. While this is a positive for the market, high volatility and large daily ranges are not. Gigantic up days like we had last Wednesday are more common during downward trending markets than upward trending markets. This doesn't mean SPY has not bottomed it just means we should remain cautious. SPDR's S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) … [Read more...]

Interest Bearing Mattresses

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Last week was only 3 1/2 days of trading but with lots of selling. The S&P 500 index ETF (SPY) is testing weak support established by range lows from the sell off early this year. The Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) is in the process of testing those same lows but looks like it needs to work it's way down a little further. The Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) also looks like it wants to work it's way down a little lower into support. S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) weekly Nasdaq (QQQ) … [Read more...]

Have We Bottomed Yet?

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Let's look at the data for clues. The view from space (macro) shows most of the rest of the world in a free fall beginning in  February 2018. The charts below are the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) for China, Hong Kong, Japan, Aussieland, UK, Europe, India, Germany, International and emerging markets. As you can see they all have just cascaded down the entire year and are not in any kind of normal bottoming process (except possibly India) which tells me to expect these ETF's to continue to … [Read more...]

[Trade Alert] Where’s the Beef?

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The bounce off weak support we have had over the past 9 trading days in the S&P 500 index looks and feels nice but I don't think it's a sustainable short term bottom for a number of reasons I outline below. See SPY daily chart. SPDR's S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) daily Bonds, Nasdaq, semis and tech started the October cascade so I look to these assets first for clues that we have made a sustainable bottom. I don't see any. Bonds (TLT) are still under pressure to sell down … [Read more...]

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