Although it's reasonable to expect equity prices to fade back inside of the rising channel from the bottom in 2009 the reality is that no one knows what will happen. Last weeks price action paints a pretty clear picture of the confusion. The weekly chart of DIA, the ETF proxy for the Dow, shows last week's wide range of price action (5%) and narrow weekly change (.5%). After spending the week all over the map DIA closed within .5% of the open on Monday. Technically speaking, investors are … [Read more...]

Last weeks price action in the S&P 500 index marked 9 consecutive weeks of volatility. Big intraday and daily swings are almost expected now. I don't know about you but I'm ready for the good old days when things just go straight up...right? Just kidding...kind of. SPDR's S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) weekly ​​​​​​​ If you look at the weekly chart of SPY, the ETF proxy for the S&P 500 index, the upwards price action from the bottom in 2009 is "framed" by the upward slopin … [Read more...]

On Monday I wrote that DIA 240 was likely to get tagged. That was quite the understatement. The Dow and broader averages over the globe got slammed Thursday and Friday. The Dow proxy, DIA, closed the week at 235.13 breaking three support levels. The next support is 232 and it's not strong. See daily chart from November 2017. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) daily ​​​​ Widening our lens, the daily chart from late 2016 shows the current support levels. The only significant suppo … [Read more...]

Days like today (Dow down 335.60) always feel like there is trouble on the way. Days when the Dow is up 300 feel like all is right. Volatility is still high. Big directional swings are still present. Expect this to continue through Q2. The Dow broke short term support today which followed Friday's S&P 500 index break. The daily chart of DIA shows this break along with the recent big daily directional swings compared to all of 2017. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF … [Read more...]

As you must know by now I love the stock market. I watch it everyday and go so far as to study intraday price action. This helps me "see/feel" the tension at the important supply (resistance) and demand (support) zones. Simply put, it helps me evaluate who is stronger; the buyers or the sellers. Sometimes I can get too focused on the shorter term (a side effect to limiting losses) so it's always good to stay focused on macro price action. Support and resistance zones have varying degrees of … [Read more...]