Friday, May 8, 2020 Broader Market Review My early surfing years intersected with a game changing turning point in surfboard design. In a few short years during the 1960's, boards went from a standard 10ft length with rounded rails and a pretty boring looking fin to multi, miniature fin shortboards with V bottoms, concave bottoms, flat bottoms, down rails, pointed noses, rounded noses and even an L shaped fin on one of my personal favs, the Dewey Weber Performer. That was a definite fun … [Read more...]

Sunday, May 3, 2020 Broader Market Review It looks like we might be in the expected second dip phase I described last week. The Dow has rolled over about 1,000 points from my forecast zone and is in a precarious position as are the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The rollover reversal last week aligned with the 50% retracement level in the Dow and S&P 500 and the 75% retracement level in Nasdaq. All three indexes are now aligned exactly at the lower band of their well defined ascending chann … [Read more...]

April 25, 2020 I just got back from filling up my car with gas and, believe it or not, they paid me 35 cents per gallon for unleaded to take it off their hands. I did feel a little weird wearing my Zorro mask, gloves, hat and sunglasses but at least I've got some extra money now to get some toilet paper. It's a pretty crazy world out there with negative oil and negative interest rates. Maybe we should all pool our money and go buy an oil tanker. I hear storage lease rates have skyrocketed … [Read more...]

Sunday, April 19, 2020 “Don't tell me the moon is shining; show me the glint of light on broken glass.”  ― Anton Chekhov In May, 1886, Chekhov wrote to his brother Alexander, who had literary ambitions: “In descriptions of Nature one must seize on small details, grouping them so that when the reader closes his eyes he gets a picture. For instance, you’ll have a moonlit night if you write that on the mill dam a piece of glass from a broken bottle glittered like a bright little star, and tha … [Read more...]

Sunday April 12, 2020 The broader market surged up to the midline (red horizontal line that represents the halfway point) last week recovering, almost to the penny, half of the Corona Crash from the February peak. The midline of a recent expansion or collapse is a typical retracement level and this particular one aligns perfectly with mean (neutral) pricing from the beginning of the massive consolidation zone beginning in 2018. In three short (L O N G) weeks the broader market has regained … [Read more...]