I think I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. Every week I keep saying “The market is just ripping higher and playing out exactly as I have described it should over the past year”.
For many, many months I have projected the broader market to start ramping higher near the later part of 2019 and into 2020. It did and it is.
For many, many months I have projected technology stocks to rip: They are..and there’s more to come.
For many, many months I have projected financials to rip: They are.
For many, many months I have projected software companies to rip: They are.
For many, many months I described how the market would begin to really rip when it crossed over, released above and separated from its 22 month ceiling: It has.
On November 7th the broader market released above this extremely important resistance level and on November 11th I wrote “In my humble opinion, it’s time to go ALL IN.” I did and it was. You can read the entire report here. In that November 11, 2019 premium weekly report, titled Voilà, I put the following ETF’s on the ENTRY (BUY) list, in addition to eleven others that are also well into the PLUS column. Go back and look at my projections from three months ago. When they were ALL talking recession I was talking expansion.
TECL +43%
KWEB +15%
IGV +15%
SOXL +34%
SPXL +24%
TQQQ. +36%
QQQ +12%
PSJ +9%
FINU +14%
These are just an example of the 83 ETF’s and individual stocks currently on the ENTRY list. Of the 83, 77 are profitable. That’s a 93% win rate! This doesn’t even count the dozens and dozens of profitable trades I have shared with you over the past year that I haven’t put on the ENTRY list simply because there are just too many to cover and constantly re-chart. Last year, 78% of closed trades were profitable, in addition, we caught the best performing asset class virtually at the bottom of a 200% run!
More importantly, virtually every index, sector, subsector, ETF and individual stock I have shown you has performed almost exactly as I have projected. The model is working perfectly. A model that Wall Street has no idea even exists! A model I show to people who claim to understand the market and still they don’t get it, people who are actually in the business! I understand if you don’t get it but you can’t argue with the results.
Message to Wall Street…will you ever learn? Maybe I should hope they never do.
If you have followed and acted on my ideas you have made a small fortune in a very short period of time. Well done!
If you haven’t, there is still time. I think the best is yet to come.
Broader Market Review
Simply put, the broader market is showing tremendous strength. Price is now going parabolic and moving further and further away from the 22 month ceiling it broke through in November. This is good. The further it can move above, the better.
The current parabolic move will need a rest soon as the recent trajectory is unsustainable (normal behavior in an expansion). I would expect a brief period of retracement towards the end of January/beginning of February down to around 291/288 on DIA before resuming higher. See revised price projection (green lines) on DIA chart below.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) daily
My Favorites for 2020
To find my favorite indexes, sectors, ETF’s and individual stocks for 2020 login here. They are all on the Trade Alert page under ENTRIES (scroll down to the bottom to find the ENTRIES..the EXITS are at the top) and in the weekly research reports. In addition, you can click any symbol link on the Trade Alert page and it will take you to the appropriate buy/sell post with the reasoning behind every Entry or Exit.. You can also put any symbol in the SEARCH box and it will link to all related comments. All published content is archived from 2011.
What Caught My Eye During the Week
Have you seen Tesla (TSLA) recently?
This thing has gone from under $200 to over $500 in just a handful of months. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve written about it here over the past year.
Simple before and after charts tell the tale. Look at my charts. Look where and when I said it was likely to reverse higher. Yes, a whopping +168% return from May 2019. Zoom Zoom.
Before:
This is my TSLA chart before the massive spike (last May).
TSLA..May 2019
Look where and when price bottomed from a 50% collapse and began to reverse higher.. right where I drew in the reversal circle..BEFORE it happened! Look at the white price projection track I drew in on August 28th, a full two months before price spiked. Look at the before and after charts. I rest my case.
After:
This is my TSLA chart after the spike (now).
TSLA..current chart
So, now what? If you were smart enough to buy TSLA recently, congrats. Be cautious up here. It might get to $650 on this current run but it should scale out between now and $650. It’s oversold now and will likely trade back and reset down near $400 before the next leg up. So if you missed out this time there will be another opportunity and the next time it’s going to $1,000.00.
This is the current TSLA chart with my price projection out to 2021.
TSLA..price projection to 2021
I put 3d Systems (DDD) on the ENTRY list last April. I wrote about it on December 16th in “Cycles, Channels, Reversals and Phase One Done” and I wrote about it last week in “Cycle Positioning”.
This should BLOW YOUR MIND! Look at the chart from last week. Look at the circle to the left of the green vertical line and look at the circle to the right of the green vertical line. Remember, price is reflective so as part of my projection analysis I drew in the circle on the right where a gap up might be expected to reflect the gap down on the left. It happened! It not only went up, it gapped up! Right on cue. Right when I projected it would and right where I projected it would..BEFORE it happened! You can’t make this shit up. How awesome is that!? If that isn’t as close as you can get to magic I don’t know what is. If that doesn’t BLOW YOUR MIND it should. Plus, it’s up 30% in the last two weeks..minor detail. How could anyone possibly deny price cycle modeling!? I rest my case.
Message to Wall Street…The market is not random.
3d Systems Corp (DDD) Before Gap Fill
3d Systems Corp (DDD) After Gap Fill
I have so many charts that show how predictive cycle modeling is I could spend hours just showing the before and after charts. But, if you are a long time subscriber, and most of you are, then you already know this. So, let’s move on to the future.
Well, let’s look at one more..
Look at TECL, the Direxion Technology Bull 3X ETF, I highlighted and put on the Entry list on September 22, 2019 at a price of $172. It closed Friday at $286.24. That’s a 66% gain in four months! I drew in the reversal circle on August 22nd, a full month BEFORE it reversed and began ramping higher. You should be falling off your chair at this point. My grandson even bought some in October. I rest my case.
Direxion Technology Bull 3X (TECL)..we’re going to need a bigger chart
Now, On To the Future
I would be very cautious if you own Boeing Co (BA). It became overbought over the past couple of years and is likely to get oversold over the next couple of years. My price projections have it channeling down to the mid $200’s before it’s done falling. Longer term, it should get back to previous highs and beyond but it may take a couple of years to recover. Cycle Positioning: Collapse
Boeing Co (BA)
I put this financial sector company on the ENTRY list on April 15th, 2019. Please note the recent name and symbol change (previously Piper Jaffray Companies (PJC) now Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR). Founded in 1895, this is a $1.2B multinational investment powerhouse. It has recently crossed above secondary resistance and is now aligning inside its yellow expansion channel (that I drew in last April) and should ramp up to near $115. It closed Friday at $83.85. It’s another one of my favorites in the financial sector. Is that not a beautiful chart!
Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)
On September 15th, 2019 my weekly research update titled “My “Short List”” included 71 individual stocks that I described as follows: “I am trying to narrow the list of mostly large cap individual stocks that I think will be best positioned for the expansion that I expect to begin soon.”
Included in that list is Netflix Inc (NFLX). Two weeks later it reversed from a 40% collapse and started to ramp higher to the tune of 33%..right at the bottom of the blue line I drew in on May 9th, 2019, five months prior to the reversal.
I own NFLX. I love the stock. I love the content. Who doesn’t? Do you own it or just watch it?
Price is channeling up towards resistance (blue line) and is positioned perfectly to hit resistance and reverse lower exactly when the broader market is expected to pull back (within next two weeks). This pull back should be a buying opportunity, just like it should be another buying opportunity for most every ETF and individual stock I have shared with you over the past few months.
NFLX looks like it needs one more dip lower into the mid line of the past two years to load up and spring higher from, at worst, $300.00. From there it should cross over the blue line and follow near my price projection track and begin to align with its expansion channel. However, be aware that with the strength in the broader market it may not need to go that low or need that much time to ramp higher. It could start crossing over and really ramping as soon as February. Note earnings release: 1/21/20.
Netflix Inc (NFLX) daily..2016-2021
Square (SQ) is everywhere and I have liked it for a long time. It hasn’t performed well since its spectacular ramp during 2018 but it sure looks like it is positioned to repeat its cycle and move into expansion mode soon. The three peak pattern that occurred prior to the 2018 expansion appears to be concluding again, just on a larger scale. If it can hold above the yellow line and cross over the blue line it should begin another ramp higher to retest $82 and then $100. It has been on the Entry list since June 2019.
Square (SQ) daily..2018-2020
While, of course, one never actually “knows” what the broader market or any equity or debt instrument will do in the future we know what should happen. This can not be argued against.
When we know what the market should do we know when to increase or reduce exposure. We are therefore not confined, like most underperforming market participants, to buying, holding and hoping.
I rest my case.
Don
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