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Mean Reversion and Light Sweet Crude

August 26, 2018 by Don Roth

The S&P 500 index finally closed above its all time high from January 26th of this year with very little selling pressure. Frankly, I'm pretty surprised at the lack of volatility and average volume. I'm not surprised we made a new all time high though. See weekly SPY chart. SPDR's S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) weekly ​​​​​​​ The fact that we made a new all time high is good but my concerns linger; mean reversion and those nasty short sellers in the neighborhood. Mean Rever … [Read more...]

Approaching All Time Highs… Pass the Popcorn

August 19, 2018 by Don Roth

The weekly chart of SPY, the ETF for the S&P 500 index, shows the steady grind higher from the February and March lows. It's interesting to note the "elevator" down weeks of early this year and the "escalator" up weeks since. That's usually how it works. When it's going down it goes down fast and when it goes up it's usually a slow slog. I like the price action. The last few weeks has shown a test of lower prices but not enough fire power to sustain any meaningful sell off. The slow … [Read more...]

Surfing and Butterfly Races

August 14, 2018 by Don Roth

We are spending a few weeks this summer in Carlsbad, Ca. to be closer to our new granddaughter. She is just a little love bug and we can't get enough of her. Ironically, I must be trying to recapture my youth at the same time. Think VW Bus with surfboards on top cruising up and down PCH (Pacific Coast Hwy in California) circa late 1960's and early 1970's with Buffalo Springfield playing on the 8 track. I figured now or never and I bought a new longboard last week and starting surfing again … [Read more...]

Friday’s Gap Down Day Signals More Selling

August 12, 2018 by Don Roth

We saw a little selling last week on Friday after trying to get up near the all time high from earlier this year. It was a "gap down" day with the open, close and daily range all below Thursdays range. See daily chart of SPY. SPDR's S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) daily Gap down days tend to produce more selling and that's what we will probably get. It's probably healthy for the market to come back a bit after the recent run up from late June. I continue to look at these pullbacks as … [Read more...]

“They” Say It’s Different This Time

August 5, 2018 by Don Roth

Last week made five weeks in a row of higher weekly closes for the S&P 500 index with little selling in sight. We went through resistance like a sharp knife through soft butter. I expected much more selling pressure through resistance. Maybe the sellers are planning on defending the all time high instead. One thing is for sure; buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure. The only problem is that price is 13% above fair value even considering the February dump. Fair value is a rising … [Read more...]

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Don Roth

Don Roth, Smart Chart Investor

Recent Market Updates

  • Blow Off Top?
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